Charleston Mortgage Rates 2025: Why 4% Isn’t Coming Back Anytime Soon

Will mortgage rates go back to the 4% range anytime soon in Mount Pleasant and the Greater Charleston area?

In short, probably not—at least not without a serious recession that you wouldn’t want to root for. Most top forecasts see mortgage rates hovering in the 5.9%–6.5% range over the next few years, not sliding back into the 4s.

Where Mortgage Rates Really Come From (It's Not Just the Fed)

If you’re frustrated that mortgage rates are too high, you’re not alone. But to understand where things are going in Charleston, you need to know what actually drives rates.

30-year mortgage rates loosely track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, plus a spread that compensates lenders for risk and costs. They’re influenced by:

• Inflation expectations

• Federal Reserve policy (short-term rates)

• Investor demand for mortgage-backed securities

• Overall economic growth and risk sentiment

Right now, the national average 30-year fixed rate is sitting in the low-to-mid 6% range, according to data from Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and other industry trackers.  

Historically, that 6%-ish level is much closer to “normal” than the ultra-low 3–4% rates you saw during the pandemic years, which were an outlier created by emergency policies and a global shock.

What the Experts Actually Forecast for 2025-2026

Here’s what top-tier forecasters (the folks the industry itself watches) are projecting:

• Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group expects 30-year mortgage rates to end 2025 around 6.4% and 2026 around 5.9%–6.0%.  

• The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is telling its members to expect mortgage rates to ease to roughly 6% as we move into 2026.  

• Economists from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have publicly projected that rates will likely stay around 6%–6.5% for several years, even as the Fed cuts short-term rates.  

In other words, the consensus is that:

• The trend from the 7s down into the 6s is real.

• A move into the high 5s is possible over time.  

• A return to 4% mortgage rates is not in anyone’s base-case forecast.

If you’ve been waiting for mortgage rates to drop all the way back to the 4s before you buy or sell in Mount Pleasant or Charleston, the people who do this forecasting for a living are effectively saying: don’t hold your breath.

Why 4% Rates Likely Require a Bad Recession

To get back to 4% mortgage rates, you’d need a much lower 10-year Treasury yield, typically closer to 2%, levels we’ve mostly seen during crises, panics, or very weak growth periods.  

Several independent analyses now point out that:

• A drop into even the low-5% mortgage range might require a meaningful U.S. recession and much more aggressive Fed rate cuts than markets currently expect.  

• The Fed is focused on getting inflation under control without crashing the job market, which makes a “big recession on purpose” an unlikely policy goal.

So yes, you could see 4% again someday, but the most realistic path is one where unemployment rises, businesses pull back, and the overall economy struggles. That’s not exactly the backdrop you want for your job, your income, or your long-term housing plans.

Buying a Home With Higher Interest Rates in Charleston and Mount Pleasant 

If you’re thinking about buying a home with higher interest rates in Mount Pleasant, Daniel Island, or anywhere in the Charleston tri-county area, you might be wondering if you should sit on the sidelines.

Here’s the trade-off:

• Nationally, NAR expects home prices to keep rising, with modest growth in 2025 and stronger growth into 2026 as rates ease toward ~6% and sales pick up.  

• Locally, demand for well-located homes in Greater Charleston remains strong, and inventory is still limited in many submarkets.

If you wait for a rate that may never arrive, you could end up:

1. Paying more for the same home later as prices climb.

2. Competing against more buyers once rates drift a bit lower.

3. Missing out on years of equity growth in a market that people continue to move into.

A more innovative way to think about it is:

• Focus on a payment you can comfortably afford today.

• Negotiate credits or concessions from the seller where possible to soften the monthly payment.

• Plan to refinance later if rates take another step down into the high 5s or low 6s.

Suppose you want to see what this strategy looks like with real numbers for a Mount Pleasant or Daniel Island home. In that case, you can click this link to schedule a call with me, William Burton, your local Charleston real estate agent/REALTOR®, and we’ll walk through side-by-side scenarios together.

Thinking About Selling in Charleston with 6%+ Rates?

If you already own a home in the Charleston area—especially if you’re sitting on a sub-4% mortgage—you’re probably torn:

• “Rates feel high, will buyers even show up?”

• “Should I wait for rates to drop before I list?”

Here’s what the data and forecasts suggest:

• As rates moved down from the 7s into the low 6s, mortgage applications and buyer activity have already picked up, even before hitting the 5s.  

• NAR and other forecasters are calling for double-digit growth in home sales by 2026, not because rates are going back to 4%, but because buyers are gradually adjusting to the “new normal” around 6%.  

For you as a seller in Mount Pleasant, Daniel Island, or elsewhere in Greater Charleston, that means:

• You don’t need 4% rates to attract serious buyers.

• You do need realistic pricing, strong marketing, and clear communication about what today’s rates mean for buyers’ monthly payments.

• You also need a strategy that positions your home as a stand-out option in this environment, not just another listing that “tests” the market.

If you’ve been thinking, “I’ll sell when rates go back down,” it may be time to reframe that to, “I’ll sell when I have a smart plan for the market we actually have.”

That’s precisely the kind of plan I can build with you—when you’re ready, click this link to schedule a call so we can align your timing, pricing, and move-up or move-down strategy around today’s rate reality.

The Big Takeaway: Plan for 6s, not 4s

You don’t control inflation, the Fed, or the 10-year Treasury, but you do control how you respond.

All the credible forecasts right now are telling you to plan for mortgage rates in the 5.9%–6.5% range, not a magical return to the 4% era.  

In Mount Pleasant, Charleston, Daniel Island, and across the Charleston tri-county area, that means your competitive edge comes from:

• Making informed decisions instead of waiting for headlines

• Running real numbers for your situation

• Designing a strategy that works in today’s market, not yesterday’s

What to Do Next 

If you’re serious about buying or selling in Mount Pleasant or the Greater Charleston area in the next 6–12 months, your next move is simple:

• Schedule a call: Click this link to book a time with me, William Burton, your local Charleston real estate agent/REALTOR®, so that we can walk through your numbers and timeline.

• Subscribe for updates: Join my email list for ongoing breakdowns of Charleston mortgage rates 2025 and what they mean for your neighborhood.

• Follow on Instagram: Follow me on Instagram for regular updates on Charleston mortgage rates, local housing trends, and real-world examples of how buyers and sellers are winning in this higher-rate environment.

When you have a clear plan, “mortgage rates are too high” becomes less of a roadblock and more of a variable you’ve already accounted for.